The Russian comeback is good for Israel

The whupping that Zelensky received at the White House was no surprise to those observing Trump’s plain intention of prioritizing “profit-yielding assets” over bad debts. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. had supported Ukraine massively, but with the switchover at the White House the approach to the war changed completely.

Those who followed the Russian bear's threats were not surprised. As early as 2005, when the Bucharest Summit announced the desire to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, the Kremlin hurried to make clear that the countries involved would be crossing a red line. Russia’s threats were shrugged off, and the results are well known.

The Russians have never seen Ukraine as merely a neighboring state, but always as an integral element in their strategic depth. For his part, Zelensky was betting on unqualified support from the West. However, he and the rest of the Ukrainian nation quickly realized that great promises are not always backed up by action.

Over time, Ukraine had come to rely more and more on American and European aid. Still, now, following the change in America’s attitude, Ukraine has been left in an especially thorny position. The war with Russia has consumed voluminous American resources and emptied American arms depots, including those in Israel. The new U.S. administration is tired of seeing money burned away in a war which achieves nothing and which goes nowhere. In addition, Trump is now maintaining direct contact with the Kremlin while Zelensky’s power and influence are in decline. Ukraine’s weakening condition, roundly exploited by the Kremlin, figures as an effective factor in the service of Russia’s military and diplomatic goals.

The West is struggling in its pursuit of victory in Ukraine, and one of the reasons is the Russian power of endurance based on a tradition of sacrifice and complete obedience to the leadership. Putin exploits it to recruit troops, and to keep up the war effort despite international sanctions. The dynamic is reminiscent of Russia’s past wars – Chechnya, Afghanistan and World War II. They all lasted many years. In this regard, it pays to recall that Russia does not operate according to Western standards. Russia is willing to sacrifice resources abundantly, including manpower, and to wait out years in the knowledge that the West is divided, low in strategic patience, and sensitive above all to the loss of human life.

Strategically speaking, Russia has achieved most of its main objectives despite failing to topple the Zelensky government. First of all, Moscow now controls extensive areas in eastern and southern Ukraine and has, in practice, established territorial continuity reaching the Crimean peninsula. Second, the prevention of Ukrainian membership in NATO has become a fact, with Trump’s policy supporting the Russian stand against Ukraine’s accession. And finally, NATO’s increasing feebleness, alongside the declining confidence that NATO commands among its members, plays into the Kremlin’s hands and weakens the European coalition.

Overall, this is very good for Israel. If the U.S. is less involved in Ukraine, it can devote more resources and energy to the Middle East. As everyone knows, stability in our region has suffered and one cause is that the U.S. was too focused on the European arena. But now there are signs of change. Meanwhile, Russia’s ties with Iran could be loosened if Moscow is less influenced by dependency on Iran for ammunition to use in Ukraine.

There is further potential in a Russian departure from the Sino-Iranian axis. Washington is cleverly tugging Russia away from that axis in an attempt to break up the alliances that threaten the West. Success would significantly diminish Iran’s clout, to Israel’s obvious advantage. Moreover, some relative stability between Washington and Moscow could prevent unnecessary regional frictions and thus reduce the risk of escalation among Turkey, Egypt and other potential opponents of Israel.

In the Middle East under these new conditions, caution is necessary as always, but Israel is certainly much better positioned than even a number of months ago.

Furthermore, Russia has no interest in seeing the Middle East whirl out of control – and certainly no interest in losing its assets in Syria, where it has historically been invested. In Syria, a protected status quo could work to the benefit of Israel since Israel prefers the military presence of Russia, whose forces have proven amenable to arrangements, over the military presence of Iran. In fact, if Washington and Moscow coordinate their positions regarding the Middle East, Israel may find, to its benefit, that the two main sources of outside influence in the region are reducing the Iranian influence.

The biggest question is how Trump will prefer to handle the crisis. To him, Russia is an asset at the global level whereas Ukraine is now a liability. His policy coincides with Russia’s approach — dissolving the old alliances in favor of a new world order with a clearly defined sphere of influence for each superpower. The implication for Israel is a great potential for renewed cooperation with Moscow along with entry into almost harmonious relations with the new U.S. administration.

In the Middle East under these new conditions, caution is necessary as always, but Israel is certainly much better positioned than even a number of months ago. Israel must remain a strategic asset for the U.S., while the Trump administration concentrates on its supreme goal of dealing with China.

The opportunities created are plentiful now, and far-reaching, including the possible toppling of the Iranian regime, the possible routing of energy from India via Saudi Arabia, and even a possible reconciliation with Israel by Lebanon and Iraq in peace agreements resembling the Abraham Accords.