The recent reports indicating Turkey is nearing an agreement with the new Syrian regime, must cause great concern in Israel. The alliance between Ankara and Damascus would allow Turkey to maintain military bases in Syria. Such a scenario would pose a greater threat to Israel, surpassing the threat it faced from Iran.
Unlike Iran, Turkey is not considered a pariah state. It has close ties with the West and is a member of NATO. It is a regional superpower with influence both in Europe and in the East.
After actively planning and supporting the ouster of the Assad Regime by the forces led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and the international recognition he has begun to muster, Turkey, having seen the Iranian and Russian influence in Syria demolished, can receive its due and advance its own strategic objectives in the region.
A closer look into Turkish internal politics reveals the major role played by former foreign minister Hakan Fidan, who has been the architect of Ankara's geopolitical ambitions, including the growing Turkish involvement in Lybia, the planned network of bases in Syria, a naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea and a balancing act in relations with Russia on the one hand and NATO on the other.
The Turkish military is the second largest in the NATO alliance and is strategically positioned between Russia and the Middle East. Turkey's military industry exports currently exceed seven billion dollars and have quadrupled over the past decade. 70% of the export is locally produced, including the fourth largest drone builder in the world.
Turkey also has non-military leverage, including natural gas pipelines through its territory, making it the key to Europe's energy independence and with over 3.5 million Syrians residing within its borders, its hold over the continent is clear.
Jonathan AdiriIt is critical for Israel to initiate a significant policy move to prevent a future military conflict with Turkey by forging alliances in the region. One may be with moderate Sunni Arab nations, including Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, under the auspices of the United States.
Another alliance that has already come into play includes Greece and Cyprus. Israel has already been cooperating militarily with the two countries as well as in civilian aspects such as energy and diplomacy. Such an alliance defines the boundaries Turkey must recognize including the advantages Israel can bring to its partners, militarily.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has summoned security officials to discuss the threat on its north-eastern border and the role Ankara could play in it. This is a test to Israel's ability to react expediently, not only by military means, to identify mutual Israeli-Turkish interests, and leverage regional alliances to prevent the two nations from colliding.
Jonathan Adiri is an Israeli digital health care entrepreneur and a former IDF liaison to the Red Cross
