Hamas terrorists are operating autonomously under orders to hold out as long as possible. Still, the Islamist terror group is struggling to maintain its grip as Israel openly backs tribes opposing it, three sources close to Hamas said.
With a humanitarian crisis in Gaza intensifying international pressure for a ceasefire, Hamas badly needs a pause in the fighting, one of the people said.
Not only would a ceasefire offer respite to weary Gazans, who are growing increasingly critical of Hamas, but it would also allow the Islamist terror group to crush rogue elements, including some clans and looters who have been stealing aid, the person said.
To counter the immediate threat, Hamas has sent some of its top terrorists to kill one rebellious leader, Yasser Abu Shabab. Still, so far, he has remained beyond their reach in the Rafah area held by Israeli troops, according to two Hamas sources and two other sources familiar with the situation.
Reuters spoke to 16 sources, including people close to Hamas, Israeli security sources, and diplomats, who painted a picture of a severely weakened terror group, retaining some sway and operational capacity in Gaza despite its setbacks, but facing stiff challenges.
Hamas is still capable of landing blows: it killed seven Israeli soldiers in an attack in southern Gaza on Tuesday. But three diplomats in the Middle East said intelligence assessments showed it had lost its centralised command and control and was reduced to limited, surprise attacks.
An Israeli military official estimated Israel had killed 20,000 or more Hamas terrorists and destroyed or rendered unusable hundreds of miles of tunnels under the coastal strip. Much of Gaza has been turned to rubble in 20 months of war.
One Israeli security source said the average age of Hamas terrorists was "getting lower by the day". Israeli security sources say Hamas is recruiting from hundreds of thousands of impoverished, unemployed, displaced young men.
Hamas does not disclose how many of its terrorists have died.
"They're hiding because they are being instantly hit by planes, but they appear here and there, organising queues in front of bakeries, protecting aid trucks, or punishing criminals," said Essam, 57 a construction worker in Gaza City.
"They're not like before the war, but they exist."
Asked for comment for this story, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said the terror group was working for an agreement to end the war with Israel, but "surrender is not an option".
Hamas remained committed to negotiations and was "ready to release all prisoners at once", he said, referring to Israeli hostages, but it wanted the killing to stop and Israel to withdraw.
Hamas is a shadow of the terror group that attacked Israel in 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking another 253 hostage, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's offensive has killed more than 56,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.
The damage inflicted by Israel is unlike anything Hamas has suffered since its creation, with most of its top military commanders in Gaza killed. Founded in 1987, Hamas had gradually established itself as the main rival of the Fatah faction led by President Mahmoud Abbas and finally seized Gaza from his control in 2007.
With a U.S.-brokered truce in the Iran-Israel war holding, attention has switched back to the possibility of a Gaza deal that might end the war and release the remaining hostages.
One of the people close to Hamas said it would welcome a truce, even for a couple of months, to confront the local clans that are gaining influence.
But he said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's terms for ending the war – including Hamas leaders leaving Gaza – would amount to total defeat, and Hamas would never surrender.
"We keep the faith, but in realityittt doesn't look good," the source said.
Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said he believed Hamas was simply trying to survive. That was not just a physical challenge of holding out militarily, he said, but above all a political one.
"They face being eliminated on the ground in Gaza if the war doesn't stop, but they also face being erased from any governing formula that ends the war in Gaza (if such a thing can be found)," he wrote in response to Reuters' questions.
Palestinian tribes have emerged as part of Israel's strategy to counter Hamas. Netanyahu has said publicly that Israel has been arming clans that oppose Hamas, but has not said which.
One of the most prominent challenges has come from Abu Shabab, a Palestinian Bedouin based in the Rafah area, which is under Israeli control.
Hamas wants Abu Shabab captured, dead or alive, accusing him of collaboration with Israel and planning attacks on the Islamist terror group, three Hamas sources said.
Abu Shabab controls eastern Rafah, and his group is believed to have freedom of movement in the wider Rafah area. Images on their Facebook page show their armed men organising the entry of aid trucks from the Kerem Shalom crossing.
Announcements by his group indicate that it is trying to build an independent administration in the area, though they deny trying to become a governing authority. The group has called on people from Rafah now in other areas of Gaza to return home, promising food and shelter.
In response to Reuters' questions, Abu Shabab's group denied getting support from Israel or contacts with the Israeli army, describing itself as a popular force protecting humanitarian aid from looting by escorting aid trucks.
It accused Hamas of violence and muzzling dissent.
A Hamas security official said the Palestinian security services would "strike with an iron fist to uproot the gangs of the collaborator Yasser Abu Shabab", saying they would show no mercy or hesitation and accusing him of being part of "an effort to create chaos and lawlessness".
Not all of Gaza's clans are at odds with Hamas, however.
On Thursday, a tribal alliance said its men had protected aid trucks from looters in northern Gaza. Sources close to Hamas said the group had approved of the alliance's involvement.
Israel said Hamas terrorists had commandeered the trucks, which both the clans and Hamas denied.
Palestinian analyst Akram Attallah said the emergence of Abu Shabab was a result of the weakness of Hamas, though he expected it to fail ultimately because Palestinians broadly reject any hint of collaboration with Israel.
Nevertheless, regardless of how small Abu Shabab's group is, the fact that amas has an enemy from the same culture was dangerous, he said. "It remains a threat until it is dealt with."
Israel's bombing campaign against Iran has added to the uncertainties facing Hamas. Tehran's backing for Hamas played a big part in developing its armed wing into a force capable of shooting missiles deep into Israel.
While both Iran and Israel have claimed victory, Netanyahu on Sunday indicated the Israeli campaign against Tehran had further strengthened his hand in Gaza, saying it would "help us expedite our victory and the release of all our hostages".
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that great progress was being made on Gaza, adding that the strike on Iran would help get the hostages released.
A Palestinian official close to Hamas said the terror group was weighing the risk of diminished Iranian backing, anticipating "the impact will be on the shape of funding and the expertise Iran used to give to the resistance and Hamas".
One target of Israel's campaign in Iran was a Revolutionary Guards officer who oversaw coordination with Hamas. Israel said Saeed Izadi, whose death it announced on Saturday, was the driving force behind the Iran-Hamas axis.
Hamas extended condolences to Iran on Thursday, calling Izadi a friend who was directly responsible for ties with "the leadership of the Palestinian resistance".
A source from an Iran-backed terror group in the region said Izadi helped develop Hamas capabilities, including how to carry out complex attacks, including rocket launches, infiltration operations, and drones.
Asked about how the Israeli campaign against Iran might affect its support for Hamas, Abu Zuhri said Iran was a large and powerful country that would not be defeated.
