Israel can say thanks but no thanks to US if willing to pay the price

Along with “no daylight,” one of the longstanding principles of the U.S.-Israel alliance was “no surprises.” This meant that if the American president planned on making a major policy statement on the Middle East, especially one that impacted our security, Israeli leaders would be given the opportunity to review it first and submit their comments.

So it was with President Bush’s “Road Map” of 2002, a copy of which was sent to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon two weeks in advance. President Obama was the first to discard the “no surprises” principle. He gave his earthshaking Cairo speech of 2009, and many subsequent policy statements on Israel, without giving us the slightest advance notice.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the press, I do not believe that Trump is doing this to downgrade Israel. Surprises are his way of conducting policy, both domestic and foreign. Just ask the leaders of the NATO countries, the G7, and China. Just ask Zelensky. We should be surprised if we’re not surprised.

But enough. Israel must prepare diplomatic contingency plans for any sudden shift in American policy. We must ask ourselves what our position will be if the United States recognizes Palestine, renews Trump’s two-state “deal of the century,” or demands an immediate ceasefire in Gaza? In which instance will Israel be willing to say “thank you but no” to the president and, if we do, what is the price we will be willing to pay?

Throughout, we must never give up trying to ascertain what the White House is thinking and which directions it’s liable to take. But we must never be caught completely off-guard or unprepared to respond boldly to changes. The principle of no surprises may be forgotten, but not our ability—and our right—to act as we must to ensure our security. We, too, can surprise.

Michael Oren is an author and former Israeli ambassador to the United States.